7 Days to the River Rhine!
In 1979, Soviet military planners devised a simulation for World War III involving NATO and the Warsaw Pact. The scenario portrayed NATO as the aggressor, launching nuclear strikes in Poland along the Vistula River valley, as well as in East Germany and Czechoslovakia, while simultaneously invading East Germany. The nuclear strikes in Czechoslovakia and Poland aimed to prevent the Warsaw Pact from sending reinforcements to East Germany while NATO troops moved in.
Soviet Counter-Attack Strategy
The envisioned Soviet plan was to counter-attack with nukes dropped in key locations: Antwerp and Brussels in Belgium, Vienna in Austria, Padova, Vincenza, and Verona in Italy, Nuremberg, Cologne, Munich, Bonn, and Stuttgart in Germany, Amsterdam in the Netherlands, and Roskilde and Esbjerg in Denmark.
The simulation saw the Soviet and Warsaw Pact armies advancing after multiple nuclear strikes, intending to reach the Rhine within 7 days to regroup and resupply. The Soviets hoped that sparing targets in France and the UK would prevent those countries from escalating the conflict by launching their own nukes. Additionally, they hoped that this selective targeting would fracture NATO cohesion and sway European public opinion, facilitating negotiations for a cease-fire.
Escalation Scenario
In the event that a cease-fire seemed unlikely, the Warsaw Pact would push for the North Sea and the Atlantic, reaching Lyon in France by day 9, and then rushing toward the Pyrenees and the Mediterranean Sea.
Several members of the Warsaw Pact considered the plan overly simplistic and optimistic. They also balked at the estimated huge number of casualties: East Germany and Poland would effectively be erased from the maps, and millions of civilians were expected to die. This was before even considering a potential NATO nuclear counterattack on other Warsaw Pact countries and the USSR itself. The Eastern Bloc had thus caught a glimpse of what a nuclear apocalypse might entail.
The Cold War Dilemma
Ironically, we posted yesterday about NATO’s strategy in case of a war in Europe (circa 1950s). It seems that one thing both Washington and Moscow agreed on was that Eastern Europe would be nuked into oblivion if the Cold War turned hot. Especially Poland and East Germany, which would have been wiped off the maps.
-RBM
