Exclusive Interview with “Eeyore” on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Good day to one and all.

This article will be a Question and Answer session with Call Sign “Eeyore,” who has over two decades of experience in the field and now helps as one of our contributing members and as a subject matter expert.

Defensionem: Thank you for taking the time and agreeing to discuss with us and our followers a tad bit on the conflict in Ukraine. Let us get straight to it.

Question 1: Russian Intentions Post-Donetsk

Question 1: Given what you have seen and read, can you operationalize what Russia is intending to do post-Donetsk? We see some very interesting things developing.

Q1 answer:

Assuming Putin stays in power and the rumors of his health don’t create a regime change?

Economics drives this fight. Ukraine needs European support, Europe needs Russian gas, and winter is coming. Moscow’s oligarchs have suffered massive portfolio hits, so stabilizing the Eastern front and jockeying for a cease-fire with Kiev would seem like a Russian priority sooner rather than later.

European citizens will quickly refocus their moral outrage on whatever the next crisis du jour is if the violence falls off their 24-hour news cycles and their home heating costs for the 2022-2023 winter are normalized.

This will leave the Ukrainians to pick up the pieces of their country and let their hate fester. Cue Round 3 for a future date.

Question 2: Weighing Russian Options

Question 2: How would you weigh Russian options going forward? Many speculations are out there, but as you well know, with options, there usually are foreshadowing clues that telegraph. Do you see any?

Q2 answer:

Assuming the Kremlin doesn’t make any more “Crazy Ivan” decisions, like attacking when there is still a muddy season to deal with or not checking their logistics plans prior to crossing the Lines of Departure? Because it’s difficult to predict an opponent foaming like a rabid dog.

Again, don’t fixate specifically on tanks and guns when the economy is the real Main Effort.

Look for Moscow to find a way to declare victory that’d make George Orwell blush with envy at their double-speak. Victory doesn’t have to conform to reality if the Russian people have jobs and are watching their bank accounts blossom again.

Look for third-party purchases of computer chips from the Asian markets, that could be used to finish Russian weapons systems and munitions that have been idled for lack of such. Look for uninterrupted activity at Russian repair facilities trying to rehabilitate battle-damaged systems (meaning the repair sites need to be moved out of range or the Ukrainian systems silenced).

Look for the Kremlin’s planners to take a renewed interest in western-style logistics. Look for arrests of “traitors,” particularly those who can be blamed for the theft of state assets.

Watch where the Ruble stands vs the Dollar as a weathervane for whatever the Kremlin is doing to see if it’s actually effective. Russian gas and oil profits have been high since the war started, but without SWIFT that limits where the money can be spent, so look for moves to make Europeans forget the stigma enough to normalize banking with Russia.

Question 3: Ukrainian Counteractions

Question 3: From your perspective, do you see Ukraine having any effective counteractions to what Russia is doing now and perhaps in the future?

Q3 answer:

In the near term, nothing that isn’t a roll of the dice. The WW1-style trench fighting in the East and long-range ordnance exchanges could continue as long as both sides have something to fire, same stuff different TRP day after day. As this is written [27JUL2022], the media is reporting that the Ukrainians are preparing to launch an offensive. Loss of surprise aside, this sounds like a Forlorn Hope ‘fix bayonets’ move using the new Western assets (no matter how well they’re integrated) to prevent the Russians from consolidating (as mentioned above) before the summer ends.

But the Ukrainians have been and remain in the process of rebuilding their armed forces (while under those Russian long-range indirect fires) and if you read enough from all sources, the situation behind Kiev’s poker face seems like chaos is reigning. If they can convince NATO and the US to give them enough hardware, training, and political buffering, they might have a coherent response ready by 2023.

Question 4: Ukraine’s Effectiveness in Social Media

Question 4: Speaking of Ukraine counters, how effective have they been in the social media realm against Russia and why does or doesn’t that matter?

Q4 answer:

The Ukrainians have and continue to dominate the Social Media battlefield, although they’ve had massive help from their allies in the West (including the digital restriction or silencing of the Kremlin’s voice[s]). Kiev’s use of humor, sarcasm, and ridicule is straight out of Saul Alinsky’s RULES FOR RADICALS and their PSYOPS are probably one of the best sources of entertainment these days.

Question 5: Media and Ground Reality

Question 5: Is it possible, that given the effectiveness or lack of effectiveness, that the entire picture is not being truly acknowledged with regards to the situation on the ground? Or is it how the optics show?

Q5 answer:

Western European and US media consumers generally don’t know enough to recognize fact from pure fiction.

Both sides are smoke-screening and double-speaking about the real costs of this 21st-century European War (those who pay attention to what happens in places like Africa weren’t as surprised).

Kiev and the Kremlin already know what their realities are and can make pretty good guesses about the other guys. But Kiev has to make the West believe that they’re still in the game, otherwise, Europe and the US would lose interest and stop sending lawyers, guns, and money.

Kiev has done an excellent job of masking the extent of their own casualties and, when combined with the international wall of doubt they’ve built around Moscow, have bought themselves some breathing room as a result. How long will that last? (rhetorical).

Squint and look sideways, you’ll see the Russians aren’t totally lying about how bad they’re clobbering the Ukrainians; why are the Ukrainians fielding their own versions of 4WD Technicals and begging for more western AFVs/artillery/advanced weapons systems if their own Soviet legacy hardware hadn’t been attrited to Bingo levels?

Even Zelensky and his government have admitted that the situation has improved, from losing 100 to 200 KIA a day in early June (along with 500 WIA) to only 30 KIA a day by mid-July.

Think about that—that level of carnage is insane.

Question 6: Surprises and Overlooked Aspects

Question 6: Are there any surprises you have seen that have caught your attention and anything the west should be paying attention to that perhaps is being overlooked?

Q6 answer:

I’ll admit that I bought the ruse that Odessa was going to be assaulted by land and sea, although that might have been another Kremlin “we meant to be tricky” backpedaling excuse when they figured out that actually attempting a landing might become a slaughterhouse.

I think the takeaway there might be how hard it is to maintain OPSEC when everyone’s ready to post your fleet movements to Instagram before you clear the last harbor buoy.

The People’s Militia response of the Ukrainian citizenry—“give us rifles and antitank weapons, we’ll do it ourselves.” That this has happened in the 21st century flies in the face of Western society’s politically delicate Current Narrative, which opines that governments alone should have a monopoly on violence.

The effectiveness of privately owned commercially available drones, combined with unfettered imaginations and 3D printers. Again, this is a blend of a 21st-century militia augmenting the Ukrainian military’s Turkish drones and doing it effectively, to the point that those poor Russian grunts can’t even go to the bathroom in peace.

No one is asking loudly enough to be heard above the mainstream media’s pablum those uncomfortable questions about ‘unintended consequences’—like if the West sends their discretionary budgets and available high tech to Ukraine, how do they afford to backfill those empty coffers and warehouses—and what vacuums are created elsewhere around the globe?

And as with any war…. Cui bono?

– Mel Daniels