Explosion on the Crimea Bridge: Strategic and Political Implications
The Crimea Bridge has served as the main logistic lifeline for the entire Southern Grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. However, it has also been a crucial tool for Ukrainian (and western) intel gathering. Kiev may have felt they no longer needed it, or perhaps they wanted to go viral for President Putin’s birthday (which was yesterday). Though it’s probable, it isn’t confirmed that Ukrainians are behind this incident.
Short-term Impact on Russian Logistics
Russia will face challenges compensating for this loss in the short term, although it seems like the railway line could be restored relatively quickly. Authorities mention ferry services, but organizing them will take time as these were relocated following the opening of the bridge.
The Russian leadership had stated in the past that such an attack (on Russian infrastructure in general and on this bridge in particular) would lead to an escalation. Time will tell if they escalate and if they have the capability to do so. It would be interesting to see what they might target in retaliation. An outright attack on Ukrainian leadership was hinted at several months ago, but this would require intel the Russians do not have (President Zelensky relocates and moves often, spending considerable time in Kiev’s Metro). A direct attack on the president would also set a precedent. Additional strikes on Ukrainian electric infrastructure would be an easy and visible way to respond to this.
Internal Russian Political Repercussions
There are many rumors (some of them relayed by western intel agencies) that there is now significant anger and finger-pointing within President Putin’s inner circle. People are accusing the Russian president and the federation’s defense minister, Shoigu, of poorly conducting Russian military operations in Ukraine and of being “too soft.” We’re not talking about doves here but hawks who believe the conflict should be prosecuted differently (and harder). And this was before this morning’s incident (attack on the bridge)!
Potential Escalation and Rebranding of Conflict
This incident could potentially be the excuse or trigger these hawkish individuals needed or wanted in order to push for escalation. It will undoubtedly put pressure at the top of the Russian leadership. The explosion on the bridge also occurred mere days after border checks between Russia proper and its “new territories” were removed.
Regarding the explosion on the Crimea Bridge, several Russian statements have mentioned the words “state terrorism,” and a criminal investigation has been launched. Perhaps we will see the nature of Russian operations in Ukraine change and be rebranded from SMO (Special Military Operation) to ATO (Anti-Terrorist Operation), a step closer to a full and official state of war. This would unlock a few more options for the Russian leadership.
Upcoming Updates
A full update on the Ukrainian conflict (for the past two weeks) is being prepared. Apologies for the delay; one had to care for a poorly fiancée! The report will hopefully be published tomorrow (Sunday GMT).
– RBM
