Greetings.

Greetings: A Mini Update on the Current Situation

This article will be a “mini” update to hold everyone over until RBM gets back from spear fishing in Ecuador. This is just an overview of the current situation as it unfolds.

While the mass majority is now in a euphoric frenzy with tales of blitzkriegs, this update will not join in.

The Situation

Currently, Ukraine has launched a broad counterattack along two major fronts: Kharkiv and the surrounding areas, and the Kherson region. The Kherson effort is the long-anticipated Ukrainian counterattack, which seeks to eject Russian forces from the region and to liberate the city of Kherson.

With the Kharkiv effort, Ukraine took advantage of widely spread-out and weakened Russian forces and conducted a separate counterattack against Russian forces in that area of operations.

Ukrainian Main Effort: Kherson

Currently, Ukrainian forces are attacking along a broad front of over 100km and making progress with two main axes: one towards the city of Kherson and the other south, ultimately with the objective of seizing the area between the cities of Kozats’ke and Beryslav.

Additionally, there is the possibility, however unconfirmed, that if Ukrainian forces reach the Kherson Airport, that will be a trigger for a series of partisan attacks inside the city of Kherson itself, with the intention of disrupting lines of communication and helping to displace occupation forces. Ultimately, the Ukrainian objectives are to force the Russian forces in Kherson to conduct a retrograde or become trapped.

As it stands now, in two areas, Ukrainian forces have had successful penetration of the Russian Army’s “Security Zones” but have not yet caused Russian forces to withdraw or begin their retrograde.

It’s important to fully note the significance of this as Ukrainian forces have not decisively engaged and defeated Russian forces in Kherson and are also bypassing some Russian defenses, isolating them and making small but steady progress towards the main line of defense. It is too early at this time to conclusively state that circumstances have fundamentally shifted. Calm and unemotional patience is needed at this stage of events.

Until Ukraine reaches, engages, and then defeats Russian main defensive areas within the Kherson area, things are just sensationalized media coverage amplifying limited scope operations and lacking context.

It is likely that the above-mentioned phase of the operation will occur sometime within the next week or so. Until then, this is a fluid situation and uncertain in its outcome. It is also not unfathomable that an attacking force will move past through the Forward Line of Trace, enter into a defender’s security zone, and even bypass select locations. There literally is nothing significant about that. Therefore take things cautiously.

Kharkiv

Ukrainian forces conducted a limited offensive against Russian forces defending in the sector.

This will be the first time I openly state something from a personal viewpoint… but this was fu*king brilliant.

Ukrainian forces have the intention of expanding their holdings and retaking territory lost. One rumored objective is Kupiansk, a significant logistic hub for Russian forces. Given the limited capabilities of the Ukrainian Army and the disposition of forces available to them, the hub is a viable and obtainable objective and one that has significant value to Russian forces, and if retaken may actually be more significant than many realize.

Overall Analysis

The Ukrainian Army has launched two separate counter offensives; both have been significantly provisioned and resourced. While both have made progress and gains, neither to date have actually defeated Russian forces, as both operations are still in their infancy and carry many risks.

Despite the rhetoric from others, the harsh reality is that Russian forces have retained their tactical integrity, yielding ground and preserving their combat power. Side note, soil can always be retaken. At some point, the Ukrainian Army will have to directly contest the Russian Army in the field, call it a decisive meeting, and that will be the deciding point for both operations. Cheers!