Israeli air defences breached by Iranian missiles.
On Tuesday the 2nd of October 2024, Iran launched an estimated 180 missiles toward Israel. This was the second such attack on Israel this year: Iran had launched 300 drones and missiles back in April.
Iranian missiles targeted the Nevatim airbase, a Mossad building near Tel Aviv and gas installations in Ashkelon. Israel reported that a small number of missiles hit successfully, as the majority of the Iranian projectiles were intercepted by Israeli air defences and US and British aircraft. However, videos shared on social media as the events unfolded told a different story: Multiple hits were recorded at the Nevatim Airbase, a fire could be seen in Ahkelon and a lone Iranian missile impacted the ground near a Mossad building.
The prevalent narrative online is that the Israeli layered air defences only intercepted incoming missiles that represented a risk, whilst those that were directed at areas of lesser importance were allowed to pass through. However, the fact that a gas field and an airbase were successfully hit and that there was a near miss a hundred metres or so from a suspected Mossad HQ means that the Israeli air defences were indeed successfully breached.
We have repeated this over and over again on our Facebook page and group, but it is worth repeating this one more time:
1) No air defence system is 100% effective.
2) Any air defence platform (or network) can be saturated with the right amount or projectiles.
3) Modern ballistic and hypersonic missiles are difficult to successfully intercept. A good system or network will get some. But not all.
Around early to mid 2023, Ukraine probably had one of the best integrated air defence networks in the world. And yet, Russian missiles regularly went through. The same thing just happened with Israel.
Nevatim airbase is probably already back to operational status. There was probably no loss of life involved. Hardware can be replaced by Washington and material damage can be repaired. Runways can be patched up pretty quickly.
Still, those strikes hurt Israel: Iranian missiles penetrated the most effective air defence network in the world. This hurt Israel in the sense that its invulnerability myth has been shattered, both at home and abroad. Its bases and infrastructure can be hit by Iran at will. This will now have to be taken into account by Israeli planners and will weigh heavily on the back of the common Israeli citizen’s mind. This time, it was a conventional attack. In a decade, Iran could have nukes. Tel Aviv is no doubt cautiously planning its revenge: Iran must be hit back in such a way that it would be deterred from striking Israel again. If Israel’s response is too weak, deterrence won’t work. But if Israel hits too hard, Iran will be compelled to strike back once more. And both parties know now that Iranian missiles can and will get through to their targets. The fact Washington has deployed at least one THAAD battery in Israel ahead of Tel Aviv’s anticipated response is telling. The whole region in particular and the rest of the world in general are watching and waiting.
It is worth noting that most western nations have barely anything in the way of air defences. A salvo of 100 to 200 missiles would have devastating consequences on countries such as Germany, France or Great Britain (insert any European nation here). Probably something our respective leaders should also take into account before letting their mouths write cheques their country can’t cash.
