Recent Updates in Ukraine: Current Situation and Future Prospects
Greetings.
Today we will touch on a few recent updates in Ukraine as well as what may lay ahead in the coming months. Please keep the comments on topic and polite.
Recent Developments and Ground Situation
Since 02 December, Russia has rejected two separate (but linked) peace overtures, one from US President Biden and one from Ukraine. Additionally, French President Macron suggested that the West must consider how to address Russia’s claim of needing security guarantees, which led to some outcry. These developments are not all too shocking but warrant further monitoring as these will return again into the talking points next year.
There is an overall reduced tempo (as previously stated in previous articles) in the current conflict. Both Russia and Ukraine are continuing their operations in the vicinity of Bakhmut while concurrently amassing forces for follow-on operations at a later date.
Russia is continuing to reconstitute their combat forces, their major end item equipment and materials, while also generating new units. Russia is also rotating units into Belarus for combat training courses as well as familiarization training. Russia is also continuing to conduct attacks with missiles and drone munitions, specifically targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
The culminating effects have further degraded Ukrainian civil functions and further degraded the economic outlook for Ukraine going into the 2023 calendar year and beyond.
Outlook for Ukraine and International Support
Ukraine is likely to begin training on the US Patriot Missile system (more on that in an article later). The system will be delivered sometime early next year (likely coinciding with Russian introduction of new munitions they obtained themselves). Ukraine as well is set to receive even more additional funding to continue to operate their government. Ukraine is also continuing to prepare defensive positions and attempting to reconstitute combat formations after suffering losses this fall in their counter-attack as well as restock munitions expended. Once reconstituted and replenished, it is expected for Ukraine to initiate another limited offense, perhaps even a spoiling attack in early 2023. Alternatively, they can adopt the defense and attempt to ride out any renewed Russian offense. Either way, it is something to watch closely.
As it stands now, there is little chance of this conflict ending any time soon. Russia refuses to “cessate” operations and the West, predominantly the US, refuses to acknowledge Russian security concerns. Russia may likely prepare for further offensive operations and may expand the conflict inside Ukraine even further. Simply, it is hard to tell at the moment.
Speculations and Key Concerns for 2023
The Ukrainians will need further support and munitions if Russia expands and continues this conflict for longer than a few months in 2023 as well as need additional funding for basic governance throughout the year. The global economic outlook is estimated to be further reduced by at least another 1% to 2% as well as the potential spike in energy costs, given that Russia has been dealt an oil cap on their energy exports. These factors will further reduce the growth of economies worldwide if things stand and increase pressure on populations, as inflation and manufacturing costs continue to rise, further degrading economies globally.
If Russia does commence with another offense against Ukraine, will it be before their 2023 call-ups are executed? In either case, where it is launched from and what are its objectives and will it succeed are the top targets to monitor.
Some have speculated it will be from Belarus again, towards Kiev as well as perhaps Lviv Oblast this time. Others have speculated it will be towards Kharkiv yet again, or focused solely on the two breakaway regions currently being contested. Regardless of where, the principal concern is the future devastation likely to be suffered by Ukraine, both to its population and infrastructure. There is also the possibility that Russia will only defend, however questionable that option is.
Major Questions and Future Topics
Fundamentally, there are three major questions arising for next year (already talked about numerous times):
1. Can the West, predominantly the US, continue to support Ukraine at the same levels as it did in 2022?
2. If Russia does renew its offense, will Russia execute a more “cohesive ground plan” and demonstrate increased tactical competence? For this author, there is nothing relevant without robust Cavalry formations at the front (eyes and ears).
3. Can Ukraine continue to absorb the losses it will surely incur to its nation without collapse, especially post conflict?
Also of note, several previous articles deep-dived into operational concepts such as “Reconnaissance,” “Logistics,” “Offensive Operations,” “Wet Gap Crossings (my favorite, as I had fun, privately, rebuffing the ineptitude of a member of RUSI),” “Fire Missions,” “EA DEV and the Defense,” “Counter Attack” and “The Retrograde,” which was hard for some to accept and grasp but now the evidence is as clear as day when looking at the current ground situation in Luhansk.
All of these topics will be playing out before our eyes yet again in 2023 and none should be surprised by their return to the forefront of the news. In fact, the fundamentals are currently being employed as of today in preparation for their respective employments.
Lastly, stay tuned for a few different articles covering the following:
1. The Patriot Missile System and why all the confusion about it.
2. What Defensionem got right and what it got wrong in 2022 and explaining that in a fair manner.
3. The MPF and how it was selected.
4. The obvious conflict in Ukraine.
Kindly,
Mel Daniels
