Review of Predictions and Results for 2022
Greetings. Today’s article will be about reviewing the entire calendar year to date on what we were correct on and what we were not correct on. While we are not going to release the ‘internal communications’ associated with some of the talking points, we can offer explanations for anything on the list; just ask nicely. Items with an * at the end denote off-limit explanations.
Admin Notes
Please keep the comments on topic, polite, and constructive. We have had some recent surges with emotional outbursts. We respect everyone’s opinion, but please do not hurl insults or go off on emotional outbursts.
Predictions and Results for 2022
What We Got Right
- Russia will invade Ukraine by (late) February 2022 (Admin 2)*
- Russia will establish (local) Air Superiority (Admins: 1, 3 & 4)
- Russia will seal off the Ukrainian maritime access (All but Admin 2)
- Russia will attack to destroy all Ukrainian infrastructure as part of its military campaign, specifically their defense infrastructure (described as “Beat them guts”) (Admin 3)
- The Russian main effort will be in the South and Center (Admins 1 & 3)
- The US will justify new procurement via drawdowns in order to have an excuse to shed old materials (Admin 3)*
- **Russia will expand targeting the Ukrainian energy infrastructure and will decimate the Ukrainian economy causing significant effects not calculated or considered and will do so as reprisals** (Admin 4)
- Russia will establish maritime superiority against Ukraine (All but Admin 2)
- Ukraine will go into cities and defend from them as well as fortifications (Admins 1 & 3)
- Ukraine will be a test bed for US strategies & validate equipment (Admin 3)*
- The US will provide direct C5ISR support to Ukraine (Admin 3)*
- Russia is invading with insufficient forces (All)
- Russia has too little Infantry (Admins 1 & 4)
- Russia has fuel (All but Admin 2)
- Russia has tanks (All but Admin 2)
- Russia has logistics (All but Admin 2)
- Russia has missiles (All but Admin 2)
- Ukraine lacks proper operational maneuver capabilities past BN echelon (Admins 3 & 4)
- Russia is enemy troop orientated while seeking to deny KT (Admin 3)
- Russia has artillery rounds (All but Admin 2)
- Russia executed Retrograde in Kharkiv (Admin 3)
- Russia is not shelling their own forces inside the Nuclear Plant (All but Admin 2)
- Russian missiles more accurate than depicted (All but Admin 2)*
- Russia has secure comms; it’s where the exploit occurs that matters (Admins 3 & 4)**
- Russia has the ability to conduct operations (All but Admin 2)
- Russia is not even close to being defeated (All but Admin 2)
- Russian MTOE is ill-suited for their Offensive Operations (Admin 3)*
- Russia lacks competent ground-based recon/cavalry forces (Admin 3)*
- Russian Indirect Fires are hampered (Admins 1 & 3)
- Excalibur Rounds will be supplied in minimal quantities (Admin 1)
- Sanctions will not work {deterrence} and have fallen short (All but Admin 2)
- The World, outside of the Western Alliance, will not cut ties with Russia (All but Admin 2)
- Other nations will adjust their security focus and ties (All but Admin 2)
- The West does not have long-term sufficient war stock to provide Ukraine (Admins 1 & 3)
- Energy prices will increase from this conflict, as will inflation (All but Admin 2)
- The global economy will suffer from this conflict (All but Admin 2)
- China and Russia will deepen their alliance (Admins 1, 3 & 4)
- Putin is sick (Admin 2)*
- Putin will (should) fire several key military leaders (Admin 2)/Admin 5*
- Pushing Russia deeper towards China will allow Beijing to secure their energy through Russia, severely hurting US war plans (Admins 3 & 4)
- Russia will retaliate against the US with support to Iran, North Korea & China (Admins 3 & 4)*
- Russia will employ specific targeting against the Ukrainian energy sector & dismantle their economic capacity (Admin 4/Admin 3)*
- Russia agreed to a grain deal (Admins 3 & 4)
- This conflict will not deter China in Asia (All but Admin 2)
- The West, the US and others will suffer severe economic losses (Admins 1, 3 & 4)
- China will emerge as a winner from this conflict (Admins 3, 4 & 5)*
What We Got Wrong
- Russia has no fuel (Admin 2)
- Russia has no tanks (Admin 2)
- Russia has no war supplies (Admin 2)
- Russia has no more missiles (Admin 2)
- Russia has no more artillery rounds (Admin 2)
- Russian missiles miss by over half (Admin 2)
- Russia has no secure comms (Admin 2)
- Russia has no ability to conduct operations (Admin 2)
- Russia is defeated (Admin 2/5)
- The US and the West will not incur meaningful economic woes (Admin 2)
- Russia will retain Kherson (Admins 3 & 4)
- The West will not be able to support Kiev long enough to matter (Admin 3)
- The US has significant war stock to provide Kiev without concern (Admin 2)
- The global economy will not degrade* (Admin 2)
- Russian systems will reduce effectiveness against US supplied weapons (Admin 1)
- Russia will defeat Ukraine within a few months (All)
- Russia will refuse a grain deal (Admin 2)
- Sanctions will work (Admin 2)
- The World will cut ties with Russia (Admin 2)
- Other nations will not {or it doesn’t matter} alter their security positions (Admin 2)
- CTSO will abandon Russia (Admin 2)
- Russia is intentionally attacking their own forces inside the Nuclear Power Plant (Admin 2)
- This conflict will deter China (Admin 2)
- China will emerge weaker from this conflict (Admin 2)
- Russia won’t deepen ties with Iran, North Korea & China or that it is not relevant (Admin 2)
- Snake Island is strategically important and required to secure the Black Sea (Admin 2)
- The West will not reject diplomacy & will seek to resolve the issue with Russia (Admin 3)
- Macron will seize the moment and reach a peaceful agreement (Admin 3)
Right vs. Wrong Stats
Admin 1: 27 Right/ 2 Wrong. 93.10%
Admin 2: 4 Right/ 23 Wrong. 14.81%
Admin 3: 38 Right/ 5 Wrong. 88.37%
Admin 4: 23 Right/ 1 Wrong. 95.83%
Admin 5: 20 Right/ 2 Wrong. 90.90%
Overall, we stand at 77% accuracy.
Kindly,
Mel Daniels
