Ukraine Update: Day 105 to 112
Kharkiv Area
Russian local counterattacks are ongoing in locations where the Ukrainian Armed Forces were advancing only a couple of weeks ago. Rubizhne and Stary Saltiv seem to have been retaken by the Russians. Fighting is ongoing for control of Verkhniy Saltov, Shestokove, and Peremoha.
Donbass Area
The Russians have taken Svyatohirsk, Bogorodichnoye, and Vrubivka alongside a smattering of other settlements. They are advancing along several distinct axes and forcing the Ukrainian armed forces to defend across a long front. The towns of Slavyansk and Bakhmut are both directly at risk of being assaulted.
Severodonetsk is under Russian control at 80%, and the remaining Ukrainian resistance is holed up in the industrial complex southwest of the city. The garrison is most likely cut off from Ukrainian lines as the last remaining bridge linking Severodonetsk to Lysychansk was destroyed by Russian artillery earlier this week. We have a Ukrainian garrison (estimated 2,500) alongside an unknown number of Ukrainian civilians (estimated 500), cut off but holding out from an industrial area. This situation is drawing a powerful parallel to what the situation looked like for a while in Mariupol. The size of Severodonetsk’s industrial zoning is also roughly the same size as Azovstal Steel Plant.
Severodonetsk airport fell to the Russians last week. Ukrainian armed forces have launched a counterattack west of Izyum and have met with some success. The “Donbass Box” is a square 40km by 40km. Within it are an estimated 70,000 Ukrainian servicemen entrenched in defensive positions, fighting the Russians and separatists.
Kherson Area
The Ukrainian army is still pushing forward in this area. We can see two distinct axes: one coming from Nikolayev and pushing toward Kherson City and one south of Krivyi Rih pushing across the Ukrainian beachhead at Davydiv Brid (Ingulet River crossing). The Ukrainians are meeting with some success, but they are taking heavy casualties and progress is extremely slow despite the local Ukrainian numerical superiority.
Miscellaneous Updates
Russian long-range strikes on Dnipro, Kharkiv, Nikolayev, Kiev, Chernihiv, Lviv, and Ternopol have been reported. Ukrainian strikes on Nova Kakhovka and Donetsk are also ongoing.
Ukraine is running low on rockets for its MLRS platforms, especially the Smerch and Uragan ones. Kiev has also admitted to running low on 152mm artillery rounds for its Soviet-era artillery pieces, which means that from now on, the Ukrainian armed forces have to rely on the estimated 150 pieces of western artillery platforms chambered in 155mm that have been delivered to them so far. This also means Ukraine completely depends on the West for the supply of 155mm shells. Ukrainian artillery units currently fire 5,000 to 6,000 artillery shells a day. Ukrainian officials complain that in the Donbass, Russia outnumbers them “between 10 or 20 to 1 for guns.” They also estimate that Russian artillery fires an average of 50,000 rounds a day!
Ukraine needs a massive increase in weapons and ammunition shipments just to hold on, let alone to try and recover lost territories. Earlier this week, Kiev requested 300 MLRS, 500 tanks, and 1,000 pieces of artillery, asking the West to do more to help Ukraine militarily.
Ukrainian losses are estimated to be around 500 servicemen per day. Presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych told The Guardian that on a bad day, losses could equal 150 to 200 killed and 800 wounded (daily).
Ukraine’s Military Situation
Ukraine started the war with 227,000 soldiers, border guards, and national guards, versus Russia’s 190,000 men. We are now in a situation where Kiev has mobilized 700,000 men in the field versus a Russian “Expeditionary Corps” numbering roughly 175,000 men (including separatist formations). That’s a Ukrainian advantage of 4:1 on paper.
However, according to US Lieutenant General Stephen Twitty, who previously served as Deputy Chief of European Command, “the US military has lost track of some 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers.” The American officer believes that Kiev hides their deaths or lies about the success of its mass mobilization. Either or both. Other American officials have also complained about Ukraine’s lack of transparency with its Western allies. Kiev doesn’t brief NATO/Washington regularly and keeps its strategic choices and losses secret.
Russia still launches 10 to 14 long-range missiles a day toward Ukraine, although several sources have indicated that older generations/types of missiles are now being used more regularly by the Russian side.
The Ukrainian army is now facing situations such as desertion and “Shell Shock.” Ukrainian units fighting in the Donbass are recording high attrition rates. Some find themselves being targeted by Russian artillery sometimes for up to 12 hours a day. Those units incur daily losses without seeing a single Russian soldier. Stress, exhaustion, and battle fatigue are taking their toll.
Spain is ready to send some of its mothballed Aspide SAMs to Ukraine. It expressed its willingness to send in 40 Leopard 2A4s, but the move was apparently blocked by Berlin.
Prisoners of War and Other Issues
Ukraine holds 550 Russian prisoners of war. Russia and the Donbass separatist authorities are detaining around 5,600 Ukrainian POWs. Small-scale prisoner exchanges are still ongoing between the two sides on a 1:1 basis.
Reports of food scarcity in Nikolayev have surfaced. It seems that in an incident of friendly fire, Ukraine sunk its own anti-submarine corvette (Vinnytsia) with an AshM.
Russia has installed batteries of Tor and Pantsir SAM platforms on Snake Island. An estimated 20,000 foreigners are currently fighting in Ukraine, including an estimated 3,000 Brits.
-RBM
