Ukraine Update: Day 113 to 124

Russian artillery has been very active, as usual: 14 Ukrainian settlements have been targeted by Russian artillery fire in the Kharkiv Oblast in the past 24 hours. Russian artillery is also currently working on 19 settlements in the Donetsk Oblast, including 11 in the Severodonetsk pocket. 3 settlements around Kramatorsk as well as Kramatorsk itself have been under fire. 25 Ukrainian settlements are being targeted in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Russian artillery is continuously at work, softening up Ukrainian defensive positions, causing casualties far behind the front, pinning troops in place, and disrupting Ukrainian morale and logistics.

The Russian Strategic Aviation, Navy, and Missile Units of the Armed Forces have also been very active in the past week and have targeted Nikolayev (X3), Odessa (X2), Lysyshansk, Dnipro (X2), Kramatorsk, Kharkiv (X3), Kiev, Lviv, Chernihiv, and Zhytomyr.

Over the past 48 hours, an estimated 100 to 120 long-range Russian missiles impacted across Ukraine. Fighting North of Kharkiv: neither side seems to be in a position to gain a significant advantage. But it also means Ukrainian troops pinned away from the Donbass.

Battle for Severodonetsk

On the 17th of June, the Ukrainian army was still trying to reinforce its position in Severodonetsk, where it only controlled the industrial area. Attempts were made to repair/reinforce one of the bridges linking Severodonetsk to Lysychansk to resupply the garrison more easily. Those attempts were abandoned due to the risks posed by Russian artillery. The garrison had to be resupplied by small boats across the river. By the 20th of June, Russian and separatist forces supported by Wagner contractors started to gain momentum along both banks of the Siverskyi Donetsk River and took control of several settlements, including Toshkovka and Metelkino.

By the 21st of June, Zolote (South of Slavyansk) was under operational encirclement and 4 other Ukrainian settlements had fallen to the Russian attackers. By the 22nd of June, 4 more settlements (Myrna Dolyna, Ray-Alexandrovka, Loskutovka and Pidlisne) were taken by the Russians who found themselves 4km South of Lysychansk. By the 24th, as Russian troops started probing the southern defences of Lysychansk, Kiev finally took the decision to abandon Severodonetsk and try to evacuate its garrison. Zolote Fell on the same day.

In total, between the 19th and the 24th of June, Russian and separatist troops conquered 11 settlements in the direction of Severodonetsk, Slavyansk, and Bakhmut. Severodonetsk is now in the hands of the Russians and the focus is on Slavyansk.

It is difficult to comprehend what the Ukrainian army is trying to achieve in the Donbass. At the beginning of the war, Ukrainian troops would not hesitate to trade ground for time. They picked their battles carefully and rarely engaged the Russians frontally. They yielded ground here and there but always inflicted serious losses on the Russian side while doing so.

Ukrainian Strategy and Casualties

With Severodonetsk, Ukraine has thrown everything it had into battle and decided to trade blows, frontally, with an enemy that has local air superiority and is capable of firing 10 times more artillery shells per day than the Ukrainian army (50,000 vs 5,000). Some observers said Kiev was trying to bleed the Russian army dry in Severodonetsk. But that only works if the attrition rate is higher on the Russian side than it is on the Ukrainian one. And because more casualties in this battle were inflicted by artillery than by any other means, it seems the Ukrainians have suffered more losses: 1,000 casualties a day including 200 KIAs. This represents a staggering 6,000 KIA and 24,000 wounded every month! For comparison’s sake, that is a KIA rate 12 times higher than the USA experienced in Vietnam. Those attrition rates are simply unsustainable.

It really feels that a political decision was made to hold Severodonetsk at any cost. Kiev has wasted a lot of good men and hardware in that fight. The evacuation from Severodonetsk was ordered too late when none of the bridges between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk remained and when the only two roads linking Lysychansk to the outside world were already under fire by Russian troops and artillery. As a result, said evacuation had to be done under enemy fire and all the heavy hardware remaining had to be abandoned. Ukrainian troops are still present in Lysychansk, but they are surrounded by the enemy on three sides, and said enemy currently has momentum.

It doesn’t look like the Ukrainian side is learning either: It seems that Ukrainian troops are currently busy trying to fortify Seversk to make a stand there, rather than retreat to the already fortified and more sustainable and defensible Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Konstantinovka-Druzhkovka line. Seversk is in the “throat” of the Severodonetsk pocket and is already currently flanked on two sides by Russian artillery.

It is worth noting that Russian and separatist troops are already 5km from the outskirts of Bakhmut and 15km from the outskirts of Slavyansk.

The Kherson Battle

On the 23rd of June, the internet lost its mind and shared the information that Ukrainian troops had entered Kherson City. Said information was nothing more than a rumour spread by some pro-Ukrainian sources. The same media outlets, blogs, Telegram channels and Twitter handles that had been caught twice before (“Belarussian army joins Ukrainian invasion” March 2022 and “Ukrainian army reconquers 80% of Severodonetsk” June 2022) have been caught again sharing unverified rumours and publishing them as facts because if the source comes from Ukraine, it must be true…

The Ukrainians have made some progress in the direction of Kherson city and have recovered a small handful of settlements. By the 22nd of June, Ukrainian forces were 15km from Kherson. They are currently still 10 km from the outskirts of the city. The Ukrainian counter-offensive in that area as well as further North seems to be yielding a fair amount of losses for very little tangible progress.

Ongoing Operations and Air Force Struggles

Small scale Ukrainian offensive West of Izyum: Ukrainian forces have reestablished control over at least 3 villages. Skirmishes and small scale ops from both sides ongoing.

Activity around Snake Island: lots of Western recon flights in the vicinity and now more or less regular Ukrainian missile attacks on the island.

Both the Russian and Ukrainian Air Forces are experiencing problems. The VKS is still flying 250 sorties a day which is remarkable considering they have been doing so for 4 months straight now. The problem is that pilots need rest and some planes are now in need of refit/overhaul which is going to see them withdrawn from the front for several weeks/months. As a result, both the VKS and Wagner are recruiting retired/ex-pilots while older platforms/variants have started to appear in the Ukrainian skies. While both measures should help the VKS sustain its daily sortie rate, one could expect efficiency to drop and maybe see a small uptick in plane losses (older variants often have no modern countermeasures and are therefore more vulnerable over a contested battlefield). As for the Ukrainian Air Force, it suffers from a lack of maintenance facilities, lack of fuel and lack of spares. In short, the Ukrainian Air Force is struggling to sustain operations and is currently only generating around 20 to 30 sorties a day, most of them over Western, Southern and Central Ukraine.

Troop Contributions and Civilian Impact

Through various means, Russia maintains around 150,000 ground troops in Ukraine. In total, 220,000 Russian servicemen from the ground, naval, and air branches are currently involved in the fighting. It is difficult to accurately estimate the contributions made by Wagner and the separatists. The separatists in the Donbass initially committed 40,000 men to the fighting. We know they have incurred at least 50% attrition rates/losses. But we know they have also partially mobilized their population and have incorporated local volunteers from the territories conquered from the Ukrainian sides. Wagner apparently contributed 8,000 men to the fight in Ukraine. 3,000 of them may have been killed or wounded already.

Signs of a divided nation: In the Kherson Oblast, at least two civil servants working for the Russian occupation administration have been targeted by Ukrainian patriots. Meanwhile, in the Donbass, Ukrainian soldiers increasingly resent having to fight for a local population that often treats them with hostility. French journalists working for “France 2” were recently surprised to discover that around 15,000 residents in Slavyansk are refusing to evacuate the city and are waiting for Russian and separatist forces to come “liberate” their city.

International Military Support

Slovakia has delivered 122mm Grad rockets as well as a number of Mi-8 helicopters and 35 ex-Yugoslav M-80BMP to Ukraine.

French VAB armored personnel carriers were spotted in Slovakia yesterday. Looking fresh from storage and most probably being delivered to Ukraine.

20 ex-Belgian M109 SPGs are being prepared in the UK to be sent to Ukraine.

The US has readied a batch of 11 Mi-17 for Kiev and earmarked another 2,000 MANPADS for Kiev, while 4 out of 14 Australian M113 have already arrived in Ukraine.

8 million refugees have left Ukraine since February. 4 million refugees fled to Poland. 1.3 million Ukrainians sought refuge in Russia while others picked Moldova, Hungary, Romania and the Baltic States. 2.8 million have since returned home.

-RBM