Ukraine Update: Day 125 to 131

The Fall of Lysychansk

Lysychansk has fallen. Ukrainian forces withdrew from the town on the night of the 1st of July. Their positions had become untenable, and they were at risk of being surrounded and cut off. The supply roads linking Lysychansk to the outside world were under Russian artillery fire constantly, and Ukrainian units were taking casualties just transiting in and out of town.

The Russian MoD has declared the town “liberated” although there are still some Ukrainian rear-guard actions between Lysychansk and Seversk, and some Russian “mopping-up” inside Lysychansk itself and in the surrounding villages. Lysychansk was taken by a blend of Russian servicemen, some coming as far away as from the Urals and Siberia; Separatists from Donetsk and Luhansk, Chechen militiamen, and Cossacks.

Current Situation in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts

100% of the Luhansk Oblast is now in the hands of separatists. The battle for the Donetsk Oblast is therefore going to intensify. The UA still hold roughly 45% of the province. The Ukrainians are going to attempt to defend the Seversk-Soledar-Bakhmut line. The position is already looking shaky, with Seversk at risk of being flanked and Russian forces now only a few kilometers from Bakhmut. Bakhmut itself is well defended, but in a disadvantageous position: It is situated in a valley surrounded by high ground.

We can expect the Ukrainians to hold that line for as long as they can. Should that line fail, they will fall back to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka-Kostyantynivka-Toretsk line. That position is extremely well fortified and supplied, and each of those towns have been converted into fortresses. The weak spot on that line seems to be Slavyansk: Russian and separatist troops in Izyum can attempt to attack the town from behind, and Russian troops in the North of the town are now extremely close and currently consolidating their positions.

Strategic Moves and Counter-Moves

Right now, Russian troops are positioned near Slavyansk, Russian and separatist troops are facing Seversk, and Bakhmut is being attacked by Wagner contractors, separatists, and Russian forces, with Wagner playing the leading role in that area. On the other side of the map, Russian forces have evacuated Snake Island. They slipped out at night on Thursday. Their position had become untenable, with NATO intel-gathering flights constantly overhead and regular artillery strikes coming from mainland Ukraine. The island is currently unoccupied. Kiev said they would resume control over the island, but that is not a priority right now. Moscow vowed to continue controlling the island through aerial and naval means. Meanwhile, both Russians and Ukrainians have been busy shelling/bombing the island to destroy whatever Russian equipment was abandoned there.

Developments in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts

In the Kharkiv Oblast, Russian troops are slowly advancing toward Kharkiv city. They are now 20 odd kilometers north of the ring road, putting them 30-35km from the city center. In Kherson, we see positional warfare with each side vying for control over towns between Kherson and Nikolayev.

Rumors of Belarusian Intervention

There are again rumors of a potential Belarusian intervention in Ukraine. Nothing new there. Those rumors, this time, stem from the fact that joint Russo-Belarusian military exercises that were scheduled to end soon have been prolonged. Couple that with the fact doctors and nurses in Belarus have been notified they cannot leave the country.

It is doubtful Belarus could do anything more than pin Ukrainian men and hardware along their northern border and therefore away from the Donbass. To add any weight to its armed forces, Belarus would have to mobilize. There is a fair amount of discontent in the country at the moment. Ordering a mobilization and going to war would be risky business for President Lukashenko: It could stir up protests and public disobedience. We shall see soon enough.

International Aid and Military Supplies

According to President Biden, NATO has assembled a list of over 50 countries/donors that have agreed to supply weapons to Kiev. Therefore, Ukraine will receive: 600 tanks, 500 artillery systems, 600,000 shells, and 140,000 anti-tank weapons. Ukraine doesn’t really need more tanks: It currently operates more tanks than it did at the beginning of the war, thanks to the copious amount of Russian platforms they managed to capture at the beginning of the conflict. Kiev simply does not have the infrastructure required to maintain its tanks (Russian strikes badly damaged the UA logistics tail), they are short of fuel, and Ukrainian units do not have the equipment nor the training to operate above batallion level. More artillery platforms and long-range projectiles have a much greater potential to help the UA and contribute positively to the ongoing situation.

The main problem faced by Ukraine is the current attrition rate suffered by its armed forces: 200 KIA a day on average is high. Too high. At the height of the Tet Offensive during the Vietnam War, US forces were suffering 200 KIA a week. 200 a day is not sustainable.

Challenges Faced by Ukrainian Armed Forces

Ukraine is already facing a shortage of experienced soldiers, with Territorial Defense Units (Home Guards) filling the gap. Those men are not equipped or trained for war. Reservists, conscripts, and volunteers are also sent to the front with very little training: In some cases as little as 2 to 5 days. This means that battle-hardened but depleted units trying to hold the line in the Donbass or attempting to push the Russians back near Kherson are reinforced with men who sometimes have never fired a gun and are unprepared for combat. Flooding Ukraine with weapons is helpful up to a point. There are plenty of Western-sourced MANPADS and ATGMS in Ukrainian trenches but less and less men trained on how to use them.

Recent Aid Promises from Various Countries

President Zelensky signed a decree this week awarding state awards to servicemen. 223 out of 237 were awarded posthumously. Norway has promised to supply Ukraine with 3X M270 MLRS as well as $1 billion in financial aid. Canada will send 39X LAV II Super Bison IFVs. The US has pledged another $820 million in military aid to Kiev as well as HIMARS ammunition, 150,000x 155mm rounds, 2X NASAMS SAMs, and 4 counter-battery radars.

Russian Military Advancements

Russian strikes on Odessa, Nikolayev, Kharkiv. Russia has conquered an estimated 1500 sq. km. of Ukrainian land since the 1st of June. There are still rumors about an upcoming Ukrainian summer counter-offensive. The Ukrainian army is sending a lot of reinforcements toward Bakhmut, Seversk, and Slavyansk.

-RBM.