Ukraine Update: Day 64 and 65
According to a military correspondent (Poddubny), elements belonging to the 1st brigade of the National Guard and the Army have been caught by a Russian advance South of Izyum and are surrounded with their backs against the Oskol reservoir. Around 1,000 Ukrainian servicemen are thought to be in the pocket, and it appears that Russian artillery is heavily shelling the area.
A Russian counter-attack in the Kherson Oblast has managed to regain ground. They’ve retaken control over Klapaya and captured Tavriyskoye. Russian forces advanced cross-country yesterday instead of following the main roads. As a result, Ukrainian forces in the area were taken by surprise. There are reports that Ukrainian forces were cut-off and are surrounded at Oleksandrivka, with their backs to the sea.
Russian and LPR Assaults
No confirmation about the two aforementioned events.
Russian and LPR assaults on Orekhove (near Popasna) and Svitlichne. Russian progress in Zelene Pole, Velyka Novosilka, and in front of Liman. Russian shelling on Maryinka, Ocheretyne. Russian strikes on Nikolayev and Kharkiv.
Ukrainian forces have blown the bridge between Liman and Slavyansk, probably expecting Liman not to hold for much longer.
Russian Missile Strikes on Kiev
Russian missile strikes on Kiev last night. The main target was the Artem rocket and missile plant, a factory that produces various types of missiles, including AshMs and ATGMs. However, the strikes came as a surprise as they occurred during an official visit of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres! The other target for Russian missiles in Kiev was apparently the Zhuliani International Airport. One of the Russian missiles hit a residential high-rise. The Artem factory seems heavily damaged.
The frontline in the Donetsk Oblast has advanced 15km in favour of the Russian and Separatist forces in the past month or so.
Ukrainian Counter-Attacks and Partisan Activities
Three more Ukrainian railway substations have been targeted by Russian missile strikes. That’s 12 by our count.
Ukrainian forces retook Russka Losova, North of Kharkiv City, after a sudden Russian assault in the region. Ukrainian partisans or SF managed to sabotage a railway bridge between Crimea and Melitopol. This will slow down Russian logistics in Southern Ukraine until Russian railway troops repair the bridge or install a pontoon railway bridge to replace it.
International Aid and Support for Ukraine
Biden’s new aid package for Ukraine amounts to $33 billion. That’s the dollar equivalent of half the Russian military budget.
Bulgaria has offered to help repair damaged Ukrainian hardware. Kiev and Sofia may also have reached an agreement for Ukrainian grain to be sold through the Bulgarian port of Varna, thus avoiding the Russian blockade on Odessa.
Poland apparently gave Ukraine 200 T-72 tanks and several dozen IFVs. A “friendly” NATO country has apparently also donated an S-300 battery. Italy seems ready to transfer some M109 SPGs to Kiev.
US Lend-Lease Style Deal for Ukraine
US Lend-Lease style deal for Ukraine. The deal aims to provide Ukraine with anything it wants and needs for its war against Russia. Apparently included in the deal are M1A2 Abrams, M2A3 Bradley, M109A6 Paladin, MLRS, Patriot, NASAM 2, and F-16. Kiev would only pay for those at a later date and only for the surviving examples.
While the package seems extremely generous, it is doubtful Ukraine can afford many of those toys. Remember, Ukraine is slated to see its GDP drop by at least 40% this year and its infrastructure is being destroyed on a daily basis. Furthermore, the Ukrainian Armed Forces need weapons that they can operate now so they can deploy them immediately. The systems listed above, even if delivered tomorrow, would take several months before hitting the frontline: Crews and ground/maintenance crews would need to be trained, and maintenance/logistics infrastructure would need to be set-up for each of those systems/platforms. This deal is therefore a sign that both Kiev and Washington acknowledge this war won’t be over any time soon.
Predictions and Local Developments
British Defence Minister Ben Wallace predicts that Russia will use the 9th of May Victory Parade to announce mass mobilization of its Armed Forces.
Across the Kherson Oblast, Moscow has apparently started paying the pensions of local residents in Rubles. The local (occupation) administration has announced the Russian Ruble will start circulating beside the Ukrainian Hryvnia across the province from the 1st of May onwards. Both currencies will be accepted for a period of up to four months after which the Ruble will become the only valid currency.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement: “European countries need to learn a lesson from what is happening in Ukraine and understand that the real parties to the conflict there were not Moscow and Kiev but Russia and the United States represented by NATO.”
Fuel shortages in Odessa have seen motorists forming long queues in front of petrol/gas stations. Some of those stations have closed due to the lack of supplies. In Kiev, the mayor reminded the population of the need for fuel for the Armed Forces and has asked motorists to abandon all unnecessary car journeys. Several stations have shut down due to the lack of fuel, while others only serve people who have received special coupons. Petrol stations that are still operating and still sell gas for cash have inflated their prices and limited transactions to 10L per car.
-RBM
