Ukraine Update: Day 68 and 69

Russian Strikes and Movements

Russian strikes on Odessa Airport were targeted at TB-2 hangars and the logistics area (warehouses). Additionally, Russian strikes on Kramatorsk targeted the Ukrainian Armed Forces HQ for the Donbass. The city of Kharkiv also witnessed strikes, with reports of something burning once again.

Ukrainian troops have succeeded in retaking the strategic town of Staryi Saltiv (East of Kharkiv), potentially threatening the Russian position north of the city. Ruska Lozova was also retaken by Ukrainian forces.

Russian troops have taken control of Yampil and have entered the eastern outskirts of Liman. The Ukrainian forces detonated a bridge south of Yampil (Sivero Donets bridge) on the 27th of April to slow down the Russian advance. Given that the Russians now control Yampil, there is only one easy route left to supply Severodonetsk, and that is through Bakhmut.

Strategic Locations and Battles

Russian forces have also taken Rubtsi and Korovii Yar, east of Izium, as well as Yatskivka (east of Oskol) and Oleksandrivka (southeast of Oskol). Although the Ukrainians are still holding Oskol, their position is becoming untenable.

There is a strong possibility that Kurulka (east of Barvinkhove) might have also fallen to Russian troops. Ukrainian troops are holding just south of this position in Pashkove and may have been able to stall the Russian advance for now. If Barvinkhove falls, the main supply line to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk would be cut off.

Russian troops have gained control over Zarichne and Novotoshkivske. Forest fires between Yampil and Liman are believed to be either accidents or tactics by both sides to gain strategic advantages.

Weapons and Technological Developments

Russia has apparently deployed PTKM-1R top-attack anti-tank mines in Ukraine. This is the first time this new weapon has been deployed in active conflict. The mines detect nearby vehicles and project shape charges into the air, which then fire downward, targeting the vulnerable tops of vehicles.

The Ukrainian armed forces have reportedly deployed additional air defense systems near the Beskydy Tunnel to protect it from missile strikes and ensure the safe transit of military equipment from Europe. The tunnel is a key transport artery, handling nearly 60% of all rail traffic between Ukraine and the European Union via Slovakia.

International Support and Political Developments

Germany has decided to send seven PzH 2000 units to Ukraine, taken directly from active Bundeswehr units. The UK has also announced an additional £300 million worth of military aid to Ukraine, including EW units, counter-battery radars, and night vision devices.

Meanwhile, Pope Francis in Rome commented that the “barking of NATO at the door of Russia” might have led to the invasion of Ukraine. He described Russia’s attitude toward Ukraine as “an anger that I don’t know whether it was provoked but was perhaps facilitated by the presence in nearby countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.”

The Russian Cabinet of Ministers has been instructed to create a list of retaliatory economic measures against “unfriendly countries.” There are also rumors that Kiev is preparing to officially withdraw from negotiations with Moscow.

Rumors and Speculations

There are persistent rumors about Russia preparing to fully mobilize its armed forces and population shortly after the 9th of May. This would allow Moscow to officially recall all reservists and militiamen and mobilize all armed forces resources, which includes a pool of 800,000 active service members and up to 2,000,000 reserve personnel.

Russia’s Investigative Committee has launched an official case against 75 foreign mercenaries operating in Ukraine. Moscow has confirmed that NATO citizens who entered Ukraine to fight Russian forces will not be covered by the Geneva Convention.

Additional Military Developments

Washington will be delivering an additional 5,000 Javelin missiles to Ukraine before the end of this week. Seventy out of ninety US howitzers have already been transferred to Ukraine alongside tens of thousands of 155mm shells.

A fuel depot and a coal-fired power station were sabotaged in Russia over the past seven days.

“The United States intends to ensure that the situation around Ukraine turns into a strategic failure for Russia,” stated Celeste Wallander, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs.

Currently, Russia controls around 20% of Ukrainian territory.