Ukraine Update: Day 72, 73 and 74
It is time again to feed you pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian propaganda, while remaining neutral and objective, but also biased in our anti-Russian and anti-Ukrainian stance. Welcome, everybody, to the internet!
Russian Tactical Retreat North of Kharkiv
The Russian tactical retreat North of Kharkiv continues: As explained three days ago, the Ukrainian reconquest of Staryi Saltiv made the positions of the Russian troops North of Kharkiv difficult. The Russian command therefore decided to pull troops away from the area in order to prevent them from being isolated/surrounded. Keep in mind that Kharkiv is still within range of Russian artillery (from the North).
Russia pulled units of the 4th Guards Tank Division and 106th Guards Airborne Division from the front (South of Izyum). Those units have been fighting constantly for over 70 days and badly need some R&R.
Right on cue for the Ukrainians to launch a counter-attack toward Izyum. They have regained some serious ground West of the town. The Ukrainians must retake Izyum. Should they manage to do so, they could cut off Russian troops South of the town, roll back the Russian’s own offensive by several weeks and keep the main Ukrainian supply line to the Donbass open.
Should the Ukrainian fail to take Izyum, the Russians advancing South of the town could eventually take Barvinkove. Losing Barvinkove would mean for the Ukrainians losing their last railway and main road linking Dnipro to Kramatorsk. Ukrainian troops fighting in the Donbass would suddenly see supplies of fuel, ammo and reinforcements dwindling.
Ukrainian Forces Push Toward Izyum
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are throwing everything they have in the direction of Izyum, including artillery and reserve units. Even the Ukrainian Air Force has reappeared: After weeks of absence over Eastern Ukraine: Ukrainian strike/attack aircraft have been seen in action West of Izyum. The fact Kiev is ready to take such risks shows how important and strategic this offensive is for them.
Russian troops seem to have gained control over Popasna, Vonorove, and Rubizhne. Fighting was reported in Voyevodovka, Nyzhnie, Toshkivka, and on the outskirts of Severodonetsk.
There is now a serious risk of seeing Ukrainian troops isolated/surrounded in the Severodonetsk/Slavyansk salient. Whether the Ukrainian command will decide to pull its troops back to Bakhmut or resist “a outrance” in Severodonetsk is unknown at present.
Strategic Developments in the Donbass
The claim circulating on some pro-Russian platforms that Russian troops were fighting inside Severodonetsk is false.
The fall of Popasna is a blow to the Ukrainian Armed Forces: The town was one of the “locks” on their defensive position in the Donbass. Ukrainian troops defending Popasna seem to have retreated in good order toward Bakhmut which has also been thoroughly fortified. It looks like Wagners contractors played an important role in the conquest of the city.
Russian strikes on Kharkiv, Poltava, and Odessa. According to Ukrainian sources, some of the Russian strikes on Odessa targeted known positions of S-125 SAMs batteries (There are four of them) while others were aimed at the aircraft repair plant based around the Shkolny airfield. The strikes on Kharkiv were targeted at railway and logistics (storage) nodes.
Military Aid and Support to Ukraine
Ukraine has received more than $12 billion in aid since February the 24th. And the UK has just announced an extra £1.3 billion in military support set aside for Kiev.
French Mistral MANPADS have been seen in use by the Ukrainian army. French CAESAR SPGs were delivered to Rzeszow (Poland) 48 hours ago. Ukrainian artillerymen are still training on this platform at the Camp militaire de Canjuers’ polygon.
Washington has now sent 209,000 155mm artillery rounds to Ukraine.
Portugal has decided to hand over 15 M113 tracked armored personnel carriers and five 155 mm M114 howitzers to Ukraine. While the M113 is a Cold War era vehicle, the M114 howitzer is a design fresh from 1941!
Challenges Ahead for Ukraine
All those platforms and weapons systems sent to Ukraine will definitely help the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the short term. Medium to long term, though, they might create a serious headache as far as maintenance goes, considering there is no standardisation between those systems and no infrastructure or trained personnel to maintain those inside of Ukraine.
President Zelensky has recently said Ukraine needs $7 billion a month to cover the country’s budget deficit and $600 billion to repair, restore or replace everything that has been damaged or destroyed by the war so far. Ukraine had a GDP of $165 billion, last year.
Towns and cities under Russian control in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts have been connected to the Russian internet. Russia intends on connecting those regions to Russian electric and gas grids, too.
Ukraine’s deputy Prime Minister claimed yesterday that all women, elderly and children had been evacuated from Azovstal. This came hours after Ukrainian and Russian soldiers met at the Azovstal Plant under a flag of truce. It is not known if the two events are related.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has claimed that “NATO supports Ukraine but is not going to become a party to the conflict as it is necessary to avoid the spread of hostilities to other countries”.
-RBM.
