Ukraine Update: Day 75, 76, and 77

Ukrainian Gains and Russian Advances

Ukrainian gains in the North of the Kharkiv Oblast. The Ukrainian army has resumed control over Lyptsi and Ternova, along the Russian border. In theory, this puts the railway line and railway bridge of Shebekino (Belgorod Oblast, Russia) within range of Ukrainian artillery.

Russian troops have gained control over Yampil, with Ukrainian troops withdrawing toward Liman, which is already under pressure. Oleksandrivka (6km East of Severodonetsk) has also been taken by Russian troops.

Oskil is still under Ukrainian control, but Shandryholove to its South-East has been taken by the Russians. No Russian progress in their push toward Barvinkove (South of Izyum).

According to Ukrainian intel, we might soon see the Russian Army revise its objectives down: The initial goal was to encircle the whole Ukrainian position in the Donbass, cutting them off from Barvinkove and running behind Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Instead, we might soon see Russian forces switch emphasis from the Izyum axis to the Yampil-Liman axis, with the less ambitious but more realistic plan of cutting off Severodonetsk and Lyzychansk instead (along a Liman-Popasna line).

Attempts to Establish Control

We may have witnessed such an attempt a few days ago when Russian troops established pontoon bridges over the Siverskyi Donets River in Bilohorivka and Novodruzhesk and attempted a crossing. Bilohorivka is situated 15km west of Severodonetsk while Novodruzhesk is only 7km from it.

The Bilohorivka crossing wasn’t successful for the Russians. Ukrainian troops repelled it with heavy losses on the side of the Russians. The Russian surge from Rubizhne and subsequent crossing at Novodruzhesk is still ongoing, with heavy fighting happening inside the village.

The Ukrainian Air Force is now trying to generate more sorties over the Donbass with some success.

Kherson Oblast and Snake Island

In the Kherson Oblast, it seems that Russian positions are closer to Nikolayev than at first thought. Their lines currently extend to Pravdyne, 20km from Nikolayev’s southern suburbs and 30km from the city center.

There has been a battle over Snake Island. Pictures of a destroyed vessel and a video of a helicopter being hit shortly after landing have been hotly discussed online. The Russians claimed they repulsed a Ukrainian assault on the island, while the Ukrainians claimed they launched several air raids over the island with TB-2 UAVs and inflicted casualties on the Russian side. It seems there is an element of truth in both versions of the events.

Taking advantage of the fact the Moskva Cruiser is no longer sailing opposite Odessa interdicting the skies, the Ukrainians have indeed launched an assault on the island, supported by airpower. It seems they did attempt landings from the sea and from the air. They have very recently admitted to the loss of a landing craft and a helicopter in the region. For the time being, Russian troops still hold the island and the Russian Navy is trying to reinforce the garrison and supply it, but Ukrainian activity in the air makes it difficult.

Strikes and Hypersonic Missiles

Several strikes have been reported on Nikolayev and Odessa over the past few days. One of the strikes in Odessa targeted a shopping mall. Moscow says the structure was used for ammunition storage. There’s obviously no way of checking this out. But the shopping center hit in Kiev earlier in the war was definitely used to hide MLRS’ and their ammunition. The Ukrainian blogger who took videos and pictures of the vehicles parked and in action was arrested by the Ukrainian security services shortly after the strike (The news was published in a Ukrainian newspaper at the time). Therefore, the Russian claim that this particular mall in Odessa was used to store ammunition is at least probable/realistic, if not confirmed. The detonation that resulted from the hit and the amount of damage shown afterward could indicate that the Russian claim might be true.

Russia has launched a dozen hypersonic missiles, targeting locations in Ukraine, according to the Pentagon. The statement added that this number is an estimate. American sources added that the Kinzhal seems to suffer from a high failure rate (navigation/poor accuracy).

Fuel Shortages and Grain Export Issues

Ukraine is running out of petrol/gas: The country has 92,500 tons of petrol and 81,400 tons of diesel left (Ukrainian economy minister). The destruction of the Kremenchuk oil refinery has wiped out 50% of Ukrainian fuel production and official rationing of petrol and diesel for civilians is being introduced (10 liters per person). Solutions to bring more fuel into the country are being studied, including using the Polish port of Gdansk to do so. Ukraine has also seen several of its civilian fuel storage depots be damaged or destroyed by Russian missile strikes, which compounds the aforementioned shortages.

As Odessa can’t function as a port, Ukraine needs to find another outlet for its grain. Lorries/trucks are currently driving all Ukrainian grain from the port of Odessa to the Moldovan port of Giurgiulesti, 330km away. From there, the grain is offloaded onto vessels that sail downstream onto the Danube for another 170km before finally reaching the Black Sea.

Diplomacy and Future Prospects

Mixed messages are being sent regarding diplomacy. Maria Zakharova (Director of the Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation) claimed that Russia and Ukraine have kept communication channels open and do talk to one another. However, the ambassador of the so-called Lughansk Republic to Moscow has stated that peace in Ukraine is impossible to achieve without the elimination of the current “regime” in Kiev, which is “controlled from the outside”. Finally, Ukrainian President Zelensky has announced that all negotiations would be abandoned should Russia pursue its official goal of integrating the Kherson Oblast within the (Russian) Crimean administration.