Ukraine Update, Day 89 to 92
3 months on!
The Ukrainian offensive in the Karkhiv area seems to have run out of steam. Possibly due to Russian counter-attacks in Ternova and Rubizhne and possibly due to the situation further South in the Severodonetsk theater of operations.
Current Battle Areas
Russian forces penetrated inside Liman. Russian troops have been geolocated in the center of the town and seen hoisting the DPR flag and the Banner of Victory on a building. Fighting carries on in the Southern edges of the town. Ukrainian forces there are executing a fighting retreat. It seems they are hampered by the fact the bridge they need to use to exfil from Liman was detonated by their own side several days ago.
In Severodonetsk, Russian and separatist troops are now in control of the Northern, Eastern and Southern edges of the city, with the Ukrainians holding onto the center and the Western part. Intense street fighting ongoing along the whole line of contact inside the city.
LPR Interior Ministry estimates there are up to 10,000 Ukrainian servicemen fighting inside Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. This contradicts previous estimates that 15,000 Ukrainian troops were deployed in the area, especially considering the fact two battalions of reservists were said to have been deployed there less than a week ago.
Territorial Changes and Claims
Russian forces claim to have taken Viktorivka, Typillya, Novoselivka, Volodymyrivka, Nova Kamyanka, Stryapivka, Vyskryva, Troitske and Svitlodarsk. It is difficult to assess those claims, but for the most part, they seem to hold true. Worse, at some point, Russian and separatist troops managed to seize Bilohorivka and Lypove, bringing themselves to the outskirts of Soledar and cutting off the vital supply route Soledar-Severodonetsk.
It seems that we have seen a local Ukrainian counter-offensive along that road, today and Ukrainian forces claim to have recovered Bilohorivka and Lypove, meaning that the Soledar-Severodonetsk road is reopened. That doesn’t mean it is safe, as Russian artillery fire can attempt to interdict traffic along its length, but at least some supply vehicles will be able to roll the dice and run the gauntlet.
Russian and separatist forces are pushing hard in the Lughansk area, following 4 main axes.
Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Movements
In the Kherson Oblast, the expected Ukrainian counter-offensive hasn’t happened yet, despite some Ukrainian probing of the Russian defenses near Kryvyi Rih and Ukrainian troops and hardware concentrations having been spotted north of that city.
Worse: Russian reinforcements coming from Crimea have been seen concentrating in Melitopol and an estimated 3 Russian BTGs have been seen forming south of Zaporizhzhia (in Vasilivka).
In the absence of a Ukrainian counter-attack in the Kherson-Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, we might actually see a Russian offensive along the same axis. Russian and separatist forces are in control of roughly 70% of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and of roughly the same portion of the Kherson Oblast. They might wish to take over the rest of those provinces before switching back to a defensive stance and dig-in.
However, the Ukrainian defensive positions around Zaporizhzhia are very strong and the hardware the Russians have brought through Crimea seems to belong to its reserves (T-62M tanks, amongst others).
International Support and Weaponry
American M777A2 howitzers were seen crossing the border with Poland a couple of days ago. Those were equipped with the comms, GPS and telemetry required to fire the Excalibur guided round. Canada is supplying some of those rounds.
Ukraine has received 14 “crated” Su-25 attack planes from “Eastern European partners.”
Russian strikes on the Lysychansk Oil Refinery, Nikolayev, Kharkiv and on the Motor Sich aircraft and helicopter factory complex (Zaporizhzhia).
Russian Military Movements and Issues
Russia has been seen withdrawing men and equipment from its sovereign airbase of Hmeimim in Syria. Considering the relatively small size of its contingent and air wing there, this move is so far unexplained. The base isn’t being abandoned, but the expeditionary group there is being seriously downsized.
Russia seems to have a problem with its long-range missiles, according to the Pentagon: Only 70% of missiles launched reach their area of operation and only 40% hit their target with accuracy. 30% of missiles launched display accuracy problems, while the remaining 30% launched seem to result in failures. The Pentagon’s assessment rests on Overhead Persistent Infrared (OPIR) sensors data.
This assessment is a blanket assessment of Russian missiles and performance seems to vary widely from type to type: Sea-Launched Kalibr seems to perform reliably and accurately. Kh-types Air-Launched missiles seem to suffer from reliability problems. Meanwhile, Ground-Based Iskander and its Hypersonic Air-Launched relative Khinzal seem to suffer from both reliability and accuracy problems compared to other Russian missile types (In this case, when the missile works well, it seems to be fairly accurate, but guidance failures seem to be a regular occurrence).
Russian and separatist control over Ukrainian territory has increased from 7% and 43,000 sq.km. to over 20% and 125,000 sq. km. since the beginning of this war, exactly 3 months ago. However, this hasn’t been painless: Russia started the war with 125 battalion tactical groups (roughly 190,000 men). Today this force has shrunk down to 106 BTGs and roughly 150,000 men (according to the Pentagon, those BTGs are weaker and smaller, and Russian troops often move in company-sized units, nowadays). Those 150,000 men are now faced by 700,000 Ukrainian servicemen.
– RBM
