Ukraine Update: Day 93 to 98
Fighting in the Kharkiv Oblast has resumed, with Ukrainian and Russian forces fighting for control of Ternova.
A Ukrainian counterattack in the direction of Popasna has relieved pressure near the towns of Bakhmut and Soledar. The Russians have, however, expanded their Popasna bridgehead northwards and southwards. The main road linking Soledar to Severodonetsk (Severodonetsk main supply road) is now firmly under Russian control (direct and indirect fires).
Situation in Severodonetsk
Two out of three bridges linking Severodonetsk to Lysychansk have been destroyed, and the third one is damaged. This makes any Ukrainian retreat out of Severodonetsk tricky and resupplying the town even trickier. The Russian and separatist troops are now in control of roughly 70% of the city, according to Luhansk’s regional governor, Serhiy Haidai. The Luhansk separatist republic (LPR) is currently contributing 10,000 troops to the fighting for Severodonetsk. Should Severodonetsk fall, the separatists would find themselves in control of 100% of the Luhansk Oblast.
Serhiy Haidai has warned that the Ukrainian army and population should be ready to see Severodonetsk fall. He has complained about Russian local superiority in artillery, which outguns local Ukrainian artillery 3:1. Ukrainian soldiers and officers have been complaining about Russian artillery, too: Some Ukrainian positions are shelled up to 14 hours a day. The Russians use every tool at their disposal, including thermobaric, fragmentation, high explosive, and incendiary (thermite) shells. Every Russian assault is preceded by a ferocious artillery barrage, meaning that Ukrainian units are taking casualties for days before a Russian assault even materializes.
Ukrainian Offensive in Kherson
The Ukrainian offensive in Kherson is going well despite what Russian Telegram channels would have you believe: Ukrainian troops have managed to force a crossing across the Inhulets River. They have enlarged their bridgehead to a depth of at least 9km toward Bruskynske and Davydiv Brid. On the Russian side, the front is held by elements belonging to the Russian 58th Army. Those units are holding a front nearly 200km long and have been fighting since day one of this conflict (98 days, now).
Russian Reinforcements and Armored Vehicles
Russian reinforcements were spotted arriving in Southern Ukraine. Train loads of T-72B, T-80BV, and T-62M are being assembled with their destination unknown. They could be directed toward the fighting in the Kherson Oblast or toward Russian troop concentration areas in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, basically left or right bank of the Dnieper River.
A word on those Russian T-62M: They are roughly on par with the Ukrainian T-72A and T-72AV. Many of them were operated by the Russian army in counter-insurgency operations in the North Caucasus until 2017. Since then, they have been used in training exercises. Other T-62M had been mothballed between 2000 and 2010. Those were pulled out of storage in 2015 and refurbished/reactivated to be sent to Syria in order to offset some of the SAA’s tank losses (T-72 variants, mainly). They can’t be expected to fare well against modern ATGMs but should hold their own against tanks currently being used by the Ukrainian army.
It is thought the T-72B and T-80BV will reinforce Russian outfits, while the older T-62M will reinforce separatist forces.
Strikes and Territory Control
Russian strikes on Kharkiv (train junction), Krivyi Rih (ammunition depot) and Nikolayev. The Donetsk separatist republic has announced all (civilian) Ukrainian vessels captured in the ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol would be incorporated into the Donetsk merchant fleet (which doesn’t exist yet). Ukrainian residents in the Kherson Oblast have been queuing up to receive Russian SIM cards as it is becoming difficult to get signal with a Ukrainian one. Moscow has announced that steps needed to obtain a Russian passport would be simplified for Ukrainian citizens living in Kherson and in the Donbass.
International Support and Arms Supplies
Canada is apparently short of 155mm shells after having supplied 20,000 of them to Ukraine. Work is supposedly underway to procure 100,000 South Korean shells to replace them and potentially to supply some more of them to Ukraine.
France is about to send some more Caesar SPGs to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Berlin has pledged to send in Iris-T Air Defence systems.
M142 HIMARS MLRS deliveries to Ukraine have been approved, but “only” with the 70km rockets, not the long-range ones.
Vehicles and Equipment in Ukrainian Service
Foreign vehicles recently spotted in Ukrainian service: Australian Bushmaster (destroyed), British Wolfhounds Protected Patrol Vehicles, Czech DANA 152mm SPGs, Polish Krab SPGs, and a fresh delivery of Polish T-72M1R.
-RBM.
