Ukraine Update: Day 99 to 104
Severodonetsk: The Elephant in the Room
Russian troops advanced slowly but surely through Severodonetsk and managed to capture about 80% of the city. A Ukrainian counter-attack two days ago sparked widespread internet reactions. Reports of Russian soldiers deserting due to incoming US artillery systems and maps showing Ukrainian forces regaining up to 80% of Severodonetsk spread rapidly. Despite footage showing calm in the city center, news of the Ukrainian Blitzkrieg flooded social media, feeding the PR machine. The chaos prompted us to wait for clarifications. The fog of war was too thick, with numerous conflicting claims swirling around.
The reality seems to be that the Ukrainian advance was exaggerated ahead of President Zelensky’s visit to Lysychansk-Severodonetsk. Ukrainian troops managed to regain control over 50% of the city but were later pushed back by Russian and separatist reinforcements, reverting the situation to Russian control over 80% of the city while Ukrainian forces returned to their starting positions.
It remains unclear why the Ukrainian forces counter-attacked in Severodonetsk, incurring losses, including “Foreign Legion” members. Severodonetsk holds symbolic value but no strategic importance to Kiev. It is connected to Lysychansk by a single damaged bridge, while Lysychansk is resupplied via two roads—1302 and 0513. Road 1302 is under Russian fire and close to being cut off, making Severodonetsk unsuitable for additional troop deployment; keeping them resupplied would be challenging, and a retreat under such conditions would mean abandoning heavy equipment.
Strategic Considerations and Ongoing Battles
One would expect the Ukrainian army to withdraw to Lysychansk, situated uphill with a favorable firing position over Severodonetsk across the Siverskyi Donets River. This is a more defensible location with two supply/retreat routes. The situation in Severodonetsk remains fluid. Russians claim control over the residential parts of the city, while Ukrainians hold the industrial areas. However, Ukrainian forces seem to control some residential zones near the Siverskyi Donets River.
Fighting for control continues in locations like Bolshaya, Kamyshevakha, Vernopolya, Dubrovne, Dolyna, Bogorodichne, and Svyatohirsk. Russia claims control over Svyatohirsk, while Ukraine insists fighting persists. The Battle for Bogorodichne is alarming for Kiev as it indicates Russian forces crossing the Siverskyi Donets River. Some sources report Russian control over the North bank from Izyum to Severodonetsk, and Russian troops are close to cutting off the Soledar-Lysychanks (1302) road, posing threats to Bakhmut and Slavyansk.
Recent Russian Strikes and Electronic Warfare
Reports indicate Russian strikes on multiple locations including Nikolayev, Sumy Oblast, Kharkiv, Lviv, Lviv Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Dnipro, Adviivka, Kiev, and Lysychansk. Nikolayev and Kharkiv were hit the hardest, with Nikolayev suffering the most intense damage. Heavy Russian jamming in the Donbass, especially around the Severodonetsk pocket, has impaired Ukrainian reconnaissance efforts, limiting their situational awareness on the ground.
In the West bank of the Dnieper, a Ukrainian offensive reached Davydov Brod across the Ingulet River, though Russian troops reportedly retook control. Ukrainian forces, numbering over 20,000 men, are facing slow progress in the region between Nikolayev and Kherson, as Russian reinforcements move towards Kherson, likely for a counter-offensive.
Global Military Support and Russian Control
The situation in Kharkiv Oblast involves Russian counter-attacks and recapture of minor settlements, with fighting reported in Ternovaya and StarySaltov.
Washington has agreed to deliver four HIMARS MLRS with a 70km range. The US is also sending four Mi-17 helicopters, 15 tactical vehicles, and 1,000 additional Javelins. London will provide several M270B1 MLRS with an 80km range, while Germany plans to supply Kiev with ex-East German BMPs from the Greek Army. Sweden is set to deliver RBS-17 AshMs and 5,000 units of M86 Pansarskott (AT-4).
As of now, Russia controls 20% of Ukraine, which encompasses 2,603 settlements over an area of 125,000 sq. km—equivalent to 35% of Germany or 23% of France.
-RBM.
