Ukraine Update: Days 85, 86, 87, and 88

Kharkiv Oblast

Possible Russian counter-attack with fighting reported between Russian and Ukrainian forces in Vesele, Tsyrkuny, Zolochiv, Ternova, and Rubizhne. There has been no proof supporting the Russian claim that Russian forces managed to retake Rubizhne and Ternova.

Donbass

The Russians seem to have found a hole in the Ukrainian defensive network behind Popasna and are progressing at a steady pace toward Bakhmut and the Soledar-Lysychansk road, the main supply road to Severodonetsk. The bridge linking Lysychansk to Severodonetsk has been destroyed, complicating the task for the Severodonetsk garrison. The frontlines are now just outside Soledar and Bakhmut.

Russian and Ukrainian troops are battling it out in Shchedrishchevo, a settlement in the suburb of Severodonetsk. Fighting continues in and around Lyman, Borivske, Hirske, Oleksandrivka, Shandryholove, Novoselivka, and Drobysheve, as well as in or around Druzhba, Vasylivka, Lypove, Vyskryva, Nova Kamyanka, Stryapivka, Viktorovka, Kamychevakha, Volodymyrivka, Trypillia, and Troitskoye.

Pro-Russian sources claim many of these towns have been taken by Russian forces or that Russian troops established a foothold in those locations. However, the situation is extremely fluid, and we are unable to confirm any of those claims. Ukrainian sources admit Trypillia and Troitskoye have been taken by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces have also pulled out of the Oskil pocket, with ground including the Oskil Dam now in Russian hands.

President Zelensky has admitted that the situation in the Donbass is “very difficult”. Artillery duels reported along the Russian-Ukrainian border in the Chernihiv region. Ukrainian forces detonated a bridge (Shestovitsky) near the Russian border as a precautionary measure. There are rumours that Ukrainian authorities have ordered the fortification of Poltava, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Krivyi Rih, and Nikolayev.

Other Developments

Russian strikes on Malin (railway infrastructure), Odessa (port infrastructure), Kharkiv, Lozova, Nikolayev. Russian sources indicate the Ukrainian Armed Forces are concentrating manpower and hardware near Krivyi Rih and Nikolayev with the aim of launching a large-scale counter-offensive in the area (toward Kherson Oblast and Kherson city). The size of the Ukrainian forces there could amount to up to 32 BTGs (roughly 25,000 men if at full strength).

The separatist Republic of Donetsk has published a list of its military losses: They amount to 1,821 dead and 7,586 wounded, totaling 9,407 casualties. Considering that the separatist “Donbass Armed Forces” (Donetsk + Luhansk combined armed forces) numbered roughly 40,000 men (+/- 20 BTGs) before the beginning of the war, the losses are just below 50% of the peacetime military manpower fielded by the so-called Donetsk Republic before the war. These losses are not surprising as DPR and LPR units have been involved in most of the fighting in the East, including the battle for Mariupol.

Surrender and Tribunal Preparations

According to information published by the Russian Federation, 2,439 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered at Azovstal, bringing the fighting on the territory of the steel plant to an end. The DPR administration is preparing a charter for a tribunal tasked with judging Ukrainian nationalists and Azov servicemen’s potential war crimes.

Miscellaneous Updates

Russia has turned off the gas tap at its border with Finland. Australia will supply Ukraine with more hardware, including Bushmaster and M113 APCs.

One of Kiev’s priorities is to break the Odessa blockade and reopen its sea lanes. Ukraine’s economy could collapse if this isn’t done within the next couple of months. The UK intends to supply Kiev with long-range artillery, AshMs, and UAVs. Washington is also apparently studying the feasibility of supplying Harpoon AshMs to Kiev.

Washington is preparing to send another 50 M777 howitzers alongside 100,000 rounds of ammunition. Coincidentally, Canada is preparing to send Excalibur guided rounds to Ukraine. The US is also about to send vehicles to tow artillery and counter-battery radars and looks like Washington is supplying Ukraine with Iranian weapons seized from the Houthis.

Poland pledged to supply Ukraine with 25,000 tons of petrol. Czech Republic handed over 24 RM-70 MLRS to Ukraine. The EU has made another €600 million available to help Ukraine financially.

-RBM