Ukrainian Conflict Update: Lyman Retaken and Advances in Kherson
Greetings. This will be a “mini update”. Just when an article is ready to publish, the situation significantly changes. Such is fluidity.
Admin note: Please keep the comments civil.
Recent Developments in Lyman and Kherson
The situation with the Ukrainian and Russian conflict has taken several more recent turns. Ukrainian forces have continued their offenses and now seized and retaken Lyman, a significant accomplishment, as previously, Russian forces attempted to reestablish defensive positions and attempted to retain that city.
Ukrainian forces have also attacked and reached Dudchany in Kherson. This is a very significant situation as it lays a mere 30 miles or 50 kilometers from previously identified Key Terrain, as reported in our 2nd and 8th of September articles.
Russian Tactical Decisions and Annexation Announcements
While there are no clear signs that Russia is planning on a withdrawal from their positions in the vicinity of Kherson, it is fair to speculate that the tactical situation resulting from Ukrainian forces reaching Dudchany could prompt and trigger a Russian attempt at withdrawal, thus also requiring a rearguard effort. Whether or not this occurs is unknown.
Russia has also announced, quite interestingly, the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, with defined borders being those under Russian control at the time of their announcement. Some have speculated that this was a sign of Russia becoming aware of their precarious situation as it stood, a signal if you will. That too is unknown.
Putin’s Nuclear Threats
Additionally, Russian President Putin held another meeting with the Russian Duma and began discussing the history of nuclear weapons, as well as severely denouncing the United States. Some have warned that, if this occurred, it may be a foreshadowing of nuclear weapons to be used.
Potential Future Scenarios
Potential scenarios over the next several days:
- Russian forces may further pull back in Luhansk in order to prevent Ukrainian forces from further defeating Russian forces and to further attempt to reestablish defensive positions.
- Russia may elect to begin the hard choice of a military withdrawal across the river, [however possible] if they cannot defeat the Ukrainian push towards Dudchany. If Russia does not defeat this, then Russia becomes significantly more likely to jeopardize their Army that is across the river.
- However, if Russia can defeat this latest push and stabilize their lines, the situation will only be temporary as Ukrainian forces would most likely attempt to continue their push.
US and NATO Response Considerations
While there are many who are speculating on whether or not Russia would employ nuclear weapons in Ukraine and some who champion a US military response in the event that situation occurs, both these scenarios are not a foregone conclusion.
However, it is assessed that the US could unilaterally respond, given the inherent military weakness of NATO members, but the issue still remains that under this scenario, such a response could result in further nuclear attacks against Ukraine OR Russia could either attack with conventional or nuclear weapons against European cities, as a form of reprisal, if attacked by NATO [The US].
Reference Previous Articles for Context
Lastly, viewers can reference previous articles from September, that discussed Offensive, Defensive and specifically the Counter Attack, and overlay those articles with what’s unfolding now, for a “moment”.
Kindly,
Mel Daniels
