Understanding the Ukrainian Counterattack: Key Insights and Considerations
Greetings. This article is going to further break down and provide some more information about counter-attacking and how it relates to the Ukrainian situation as it unfolds.
The Calculated Gamble of the Ukrainian Counterattack
Ukraine seems to be taking a very calculated gamble with this counterattack. Despite some pundits already providing “Top cover” for Ukraine or others harking that Russia has already defeated their efforts, it’s important to clear up a few things and to provide better context.
Kiev does not have the forces or the combat power to probe everywhere for a breakthrough. Usually, when attacking in situations such as this one, the goal is to trap an enemy force. Thus, breakthroughs anywhere are irrelevant. Normally, the goal is to gain access along a specific location/axis. This is due to the geographical realities that constrain a breakthrough merely anywhere.
The reason why Kiev is seemingly attacking on a broad front is to hold Russian forces in place. This means basically to tie up Russian forces for as long as possible, in order to prevent Russian forces from shifting elsewhere. This in turn allows the Ukrainian main effort(s) to be employed at a time and place of their choosing, with the objective of advancing towards key terrain, which is the cutoff point. It is at this time, if they can, that they will commit their reserves in support of achieving their decisive point (DP).
More Considerations in the Current Offensive
If it were a general attack over favorable terrain and if they had forces capable of moving fast and in synchronization with an enemy rear to exploit, then maybe. But given the terrain and the clear as hell “game plan” Kiev is following here, there cannot be some maneuver with rapid progress.
Thus, Ukrainian forces are holding, which also does not mean they cannot gain ground while concurrently pushing along one or two axes to cut off the Russians and defeat a portion of their forces in the Kherson region. It seems their limit of advance is the river—a clear limit of advance.
One flaw with this plan is that, as stated above, it’s pretty clear what is going on, and thus, Russia has not “shifted” after several days. And now it seems the Russians may actually know where the push is coming from and will gladly wreck the infrastructure via urban combat to bleed the offense. This is why it’s an interesting fight—terrain can make things complicated.
The Concept of Decisive Points (DP)
For those who are unfamiliar with the military term of “DP,” it is basically a point or situation in an operation (or phase) where, to ensure the plan is overall successful, certain things must be accomplished in order to have success. For this counterattack, the goal likely is to trap and destroy the Russian army holding Kherson.
The proper military definition of “destroy” is critical as it allows for defined outcomes. The most likely key objectives for this operation are:
- Trap Russian forces, which is why they targeted the MSRs and conducted interdiction fires and targeted HVT.
- Achieve a breakthrough along 1 or 2 axes (ALWAYS PRE DETERMINED). This is tied to the DP.
- Retain positions at the end of the phase of operations.
- Degrade Russian forces across the river to prevent their re-organization for a specific time.
- Reduce any Russian hold outs and consolidate forces for future operations.
Key Considerations for Effective Military Operations
When conducting operations like this, one must pre-determine the axis and breakthrough spots for the following reasons:
- Planning factors such as intelligence and reconnaissance, routes, identification and mitigation strategies for obstacles, key terrain. Additionally, another reason is so everyone knows their roles and to reduce confusion once the operation begins.
- To allocate priorities of fires, supplies and enablers such as engineering equipment.
- To better be positioned to rapidly seize the initiative and exploit any opportunities that may arise. One can’t reinforce or commit reserves if one is out of place because there was no plan.
- Follow-on operations or the initial conditions to provide that option must be addressed and accomplished.
The above information is designed to help cut through all the fanfare out there and various claims by other sites and major media outlets. It’s critical to note that warfare is not a sporting match but a profession. Proper context is critical. All the sensationalized clips of strikes and tweets will not substitute for the factual realities of what’s occurring and, more importantly, why.
Please keep the comments constructive and on topic.
Kindly,
Mel Daniels
PS. Maybe one day I’ll post my bio for those who have asked. Stay safe and well.
