United States’ Alleged Plan for a ‘Decapitation Strike’ on Russian President Vladimir Putin: An Analysis
Greetings. A recent news article claimed that the United States was developing a plan to execute a “Decapitation Strike” on Russian President Vladimir Putin. Additionally, a private message was sent asking us to lay this scenario out as well as discussing how it could unfold.
Please keep the comments civil.
Unlikelihood of the Speculation
To begin with, this whole speculation is exceptionally unlikely. While there may be plans studied, that is nothing significant as war plans are always drafted and revised. However, the article and its contents are most likely just sensationalized hype or serve an ulterior purpose, which is most likely the case.
Background on Feasibility
Executive Orders 11905, 12036, 12333, 13355, and 13470 [all equivalent to laws, with as much penalty].
As the whole world knows by now, the US has been very actively engaged in targeted killings over the last two decades. In fact, there is also the exceptionally famous “Parks Memo” from 1989, created by the United States Military, which authorizes the Army to conduct specifically tailored kinetic operations, on command, as so long as the motives are not political. This memo later became and serves as the bedrock for DOD policy about this and is still the framework used today and will continue into the far future.
Another interesting aspect of this is that at any time, the President of the United States can revoke, modify, expand, or suspend an existing Executive Order, and the President is not required to publicly announce it. Further, Presidents have the power to issue “Presidential findings” which can also include the use of DOD forces to conduct both covert and clandestine operations to further national security. This means, basically, the following: “laws are not being followed”.
Reasons Why It Is Likely False
The reasons for this are that it would be classified at the utmost sensitive levels, and cause shockwaves throughout the US national security channels that such a secret plan was provided to the press and thus revealed. It would put at risk such a top secret plan to assassinate Russian President Putin and surely there would be Congressional uproar over such plans being leaked as well as serious and grave political fallout abroad.
Another reason why this is likely flat out false and more easy to understand is because any attack on Russia, especially their Head of State, is an act of war and would immediately meet the Russian requirement threshold needed to employ nuclear retaliatory strikes, causing the deaths of millions. Plain and simple. It cannot be any clearer. Further, any strike would have to contend with Russian Continuity of Government plans and also target likely successors who may be even more likely to launch retaliatory nuclear strikes.
Most Likely Explanation
This story is what some call a plant and roundabout way stating: “We can get you if we want”. Often false reports and articles are written to coyly send a message and convey information, especially if it is known the intended audience is watching and reading. This is also a hallmark example of Informational Operations, something being heavily employed over the last 7 months and being taught to Ukraine and is being put to great use and effect in its conflict with Russia.
Hypotheticals
Assuming, in an alternative world, that such an endeavor were to unfold, below are some ways it could conceivably be executed.
- Inside job. Perhaps a coup supported by an internal member of the Russian government who has enough clout and control of military forces close to Moscow or finding someone or a few that are willing to sacrifice themselves to take out the target via direct attack, however unlikely.
- Gaining intelligence and obtaining confirmation that the target, Russian President Putin, will be within range of specific methods* that are specifically tailored to render Russian defense and security methods and practices ineffective.
Such methods could be modified munitions, such as a Long Range Stealth Missile with extra fuel and extended range albeit with a much smaller warhead, a modified stealth drone that could be engineered as a kamikaze drone, or even a kill team[s], placed several miles away, equipped with modified GPS guided mortar munitions, however uncertain the effects would be.
These scenarios could be inside Russia or abroad, perhaps in another nation where security would be “just lax enough” to pull off such an operation, however supportive of the host nation and their leaders.
- Aerial interdiction and subsequent shoot down by American aerial platforms. This would require specific conditions such as the cover of darkness, a precise understanding of the flight plan and path, the intelligence confirmation of any escort planes as well as a successful adaptation of munitions to mask who was responsible.
Overall Conclusion
This reported article, openly discussing the plans to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin, is most likely fanciful. While there are restrictions on assassinations, those restrictions are specific and tied to political assassinations and apply only during peacetime, absent of a declaration of war, which must come from the United States Congress. Absent of a Declaration of War, a President has the authority to do as they please and see fit for 90 days. Alternatively, all that would be required is a Presidential Finding, and to *notify*, within 30 days, select members of Congress.
Kindly,
Mel Daniels
