Ukraine Update: Day 70 and 71
Fighting inside Azovstal is (still) ongoing. The Steelworks have been on the receiving end of naval bombardment, aerial bombing, and shelling over the past 24 hours.
Russian forces are conducting a tactical retreat East of Kharkiv, blowing up bridges as they go.
Russian troops in the Donbass have advanced toward Niu York, Nyzhnie and Studenok.
Current Battlefronts
Fighting in Popasna. Russian troops have taken over the Railway Depot and now control just under half the city. Wagner contractors were spotted operating in the area.
Russia has committed 22 BTGs in its push South of Izyum toward Barvinkove. This would usually represent roughly 19,000 men, although those BTGs are most probably depleted to varying degrees by now.
Russian progress, which has been gradually picking up pace over the past 10 days, seems to have slowed down in the past 24-48 hours.
Kharkiv has been under intense and constant bombardment for the past 48 hours.
Bombardments & Missile Strikes
Nikolayev was the target of a missile strike and intense shelling 24 hours ago. Kanatovo Airbase was hit. The strike led to a large explosion and a huge fire.
The Amurskyi Bridge was hit by a Russian missile strike yesterday. This is a double-decker auto-rail bridge. Ukrainian railway infrastructure was also hit in Cherkasy, Brovary, Stantsiia Pidbirtsi, Lviv, Volovets, and Kropyvnytskyi as well as in other locations in the centre and West of the country. Damage has been described as severe by Ukrainian Railways.
Russian missile strikes on Odessa and Zaporizhzhia.
The (Ukrainian) local administration in Chuhuiv is mobilising civilians to help build defences for the army.
Ukrainian artillery strike reported on a separatist oil storage depot in Makivka.
Counteroffensives and Strategic Developments
Ukrainian forces are conducting local offensives in the Kherson Oblast and have retaken a few villages. Ukrainian and Russian forces have been trading villages in the area for the past couple of weeks. Ukrainian forces are currently trying to counterattack South of Izyum in the face of violent Russian artillery barrages. Kiev has announced it is starting its offensive phase in the Donbass. Nobody knows if those are just words or real intentions.
Experts have noted that a fair few reservist units have been used by the Ukrainian armed forces in the Donbass to shore up their defences. It is also evident that the Ukrainian army has incurred some important losses in this theatre of operations. The main questions here are as follows: 1) What type of reserves are still available to the Ukrainian army and how many of them? 2) What is the status of Ukraine’s best units, which have now been engaged in combat ops for 70 days straight.
Miscellaneous Updates
(Russian) Baltic Fleet and missile troops in Kaliningrad practiced a nuclear strike.
US DoD has announced it will send naval drones for coastal defence and AshMs (anti-ship missiles) to Ukraine.
UK MoD has announced it is sending Brimstone missiles to Ukraine. It also intends on supplying Kiev with Maloy T150 transport drones.
EU members have been discussing a ban on Russian oil. They are far from an agreement: Slovakia warned a ban on Russian oil would destroy the economy in Europe. Germany added that such a move would impose economic pain on EU citizens. Hungary is positioned to oppose the move.
-RBM
