Understanding the Dynamics: NATO, Russia, and Ukraine

NATO’s Provocative Exercises and Strategic Moves

In September 2021, NATO called the Russian military exercise ZAPAD “dangerous.” Jens Stoltenberg said, “the Russian military buildup along Ukrainian borders this year heightens the risk of an accident or miscalculation that could touch off a crisis.” On the 6th of August 2023, 11 Chinese and Russian ships conducted a joint naval operation near the coast of Alaska. This move was dubbed “highly provocative” by senior experts in Washington. It seems Russia often behaves like an aggressor when reading these types of statements.

Aggressive Posturing: A Two-way Street

In 2016, the US activated its ABM infrastructure in Romania. While defensive in nature, the infrastructure in place (Mark-41 launchers) is capable of firing nuclear-tipped Tomahawk missiles (into Russia). Moscow’s protests and security concerns regarding this installation were ignored. A similar installation in Poland came online in 2022, obviously after having unilaterally withdrawn from the ABM treaty in 2002.

In 2020, NATO conducted a live fire training exercise in Estonia. Tactical missiles with a range of 185 miles were fired, despite the fact the exercise took place only 70 miles from the Russian border. In 2021, Estonia conducted the live firing of 24 missiles, simulating a strike on Russian Air Defense batteries inside Russia.

In March 2021, units belonging to 8 NATO countries conducted a naval exercise in Romania (Operation Sea Shield). This involved 2,400 troops, 18 ships, and 10 planes. Four months later, in July 2021, Ukraine and the US hosted Sea Breeze, a major naval exercise in the Black Sea involving the navies from 32 countries.

Two months after that, in September 2021, NATO held joint exercises with Ukraine (Rapid Trident) inside Ukraine, involving 4000 UAF and 2000 NATO military personnel.

Ukraine’s Increasing Military Collaboration with NATO

Additionally, from 2017 onwards, the US started deliveries of lethal weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces while at the same time conducting training of Ukrainian troops and interoperability exercises inside Ukraine. In December 2019, a Russian general noted that the NATO buildup in the Baltic states, in Poland, Ukraine, and in the Black Sea region could only mean one thing: The alliance was preparing for war against Russia.

In December 2021, the Russian ambassador to the US noted that NATO was carrying an average of 40 large-scale military exercises near the Russian border annually. “Everything has its limits,” the Russian ambassador in Washington said. “If our American and NATO partners keep constructing military-strategic realities imperiling the existence of Russia, we will be forced to create similar vulnerabilities for them. We have come to a point where we have no room to retreat. The military exploration of Ukraine by NATO member states is an existential threat for Russia.”

Red Lines and Historical Context

In January 2022, Russian FM Lavrov stated, “We categorically do not accept the emergence of a military alliance on Russian borders. This is a real red line. Even if Ukraine does not join NATO, the appearance of strike weapons and US military bases in the Sea of Azov is the second red line.”

Going back in time, NATO did not waste any time getting close to Kiev: Ukraine joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council in 1991 (the year the country gained its independence). Brussels and Kiev entered the “Partnership for Peace” in 1994. Relations were further strengthened in 1997, and in 2008, the alliance decided that Ukraine should be invited to become a member of NATO. This was done despite protests from Moscow and warnings from American officials that this would lead to a conflict with Russia down the road.

In 2014, as the Maidan protests morphed into a fully-fledged coup, clues emerged that showed Washington had been buying influence within Ukraine for years and had contingencies for the appearance of a transition government friendly and pliable to the demands and interests of the US.

In December 2021, Russia demanded formal security guarantees from the West. This was followed by an ultimatum when Washington rejected all meaningful chances of compromise. Russia’s demands that Ukraine and Georgia would not be admitted to the alliance, as well as the demand that NATO would not deploy additional troops or weapons in existing member states, were deemed “provocative and controversial” by Washington.